Market Insights_

Pubs and restaurants take blame for UK’s Covid spike

The latest consumer spending figures from Fable Data, a consultancy which has access to spending on cards across the UK, suggests spending in the hospitality sector remained high in September, after the August boost, but has begun to fall off. The latest figures show pubs had their worst week of takings up to last Sunday since the first week in August.

08 October 2020

Leading academics team up with Fable Data to examine the rising inequality in UK economic recovery

Our academic partners at Chicago Booth School of Business and Nottingham University have published their latest research into UK economic recovery in the second half of 2020. The research examines the economic impact across regions, highlighting the variations in consumer spending patterns and the unequal distributions of financial impact as a result of lockdown measures...

02 October 2020

Economic update: Summer rebound but gloomier winter ahead

There are some indications that the summer momentum began to ease in September. For example, the IHS Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index showed growth in business activity slowed in September. This was particularly the case in the services sector. In addition, card and bank payments data collected by Fable Data point to consumer spending slowing over the course of September, following strong increases in July and August. ​ *The House of Commons Library does not operate as a press outlet, but as an impartial research and information service based in UK Parliament.

29 September 2020

Fixing test and trace is the only way to avoid economic catastrophe

According to the Fable data, based on 180,000 transactions, spending in Leicester was already 31pc down compared to its pre-virus level, at around £750,000 a day. But while the lockdown cut Covid-19 cases from 20 per 100,000 to fewer than five per 100,000 inhabitants, it did so without any further significant decline in credit card spending compared to Coventry.

28 September 2020

Recovery in UK consumer confidence threatened by rising infections

In the week ending September 20, UK consumer spending contracted on an annual basis for the first time. “After six weeks of positive year-on-year spend, UK spend was down 1.32 per cent this week,” said Avinash Srinivasan, equity analyst at Fable Data.

25 September 2020

Fear and frustration: Europe’s wealthy keep wallets closed

Card transaction data from analytics firm Fable Data shows UK retail sales rose in August, recovering to just above 2019 levels by the end of the month. Consumers shifted spending from entertainment, leisure and transport towards cars, car maintenance, home improvements and sporting goods.

11 September 2020

Richer London boroughs suffer biggest fall in lockdown spending

Some of the richer boroughs – where residents have thriving food scenes on their doorstep and more spare cash – did the best from the Eat Out to Help Out scheme in August, according to card payments and bank transactions tracked by Fable Data.

11 September 2020

As pubs reopen in the UK, is it still Rishi’s round?

Pub and restaurant spend improved from –66% YoY to –51% YoY, following last weekend’s reopening, as Fable Data informs the government case for economic intervention. Real time data sources – such as Fable Data – are influencing government policy, as the Treasury battles to protect the UK economy. Currently the Treasury has an extremely challenging...

08 July 2020

Will Covid-19 kill cash?

For the past ten weeks, Fable Data has released a weekly trends report, using our consumer transaction dataset to help shed light on the dramatic fluctuations felt by the markets at this time. Obviously, the primary driver of year on year changes has been the Covid-19 pandemic lockdown – “Stay at home”, and later the...

28 May 2020

Early warning signs: Fable sees COVID-19 impact on planes, pasta and pubs 5 days before market moves

In uncertain times the most reliable source of information is consumer spend. While Investor Relations teams endeavour to advise shareholders about any business impacts they are enduring, management focus is always on first navigating the choppy waters. This often leads to delayed information and drastic stock price moves. It is no surprise, given the Covid...

13 March 2020

Finding the features: Same stores, eCommerce and key value items

Anonymised consumer transactions lack Personal Data but contain information that we can use to create detailed features to better understand the underlying performance of a business. Total sales and transactions are great predictors of total revenue, but there are deeper signals that are better predictors of profit. One of the first questions an investor asks...

10 February 2020

UK economy faces gloomy fourth quarterSpending slowed even before new restrictions were announced

Consumer spending remains the bright spot in the economy, with the latest figures from Fable Data, which tracks spending on cards and bank accounts, showing a 4.8 per cent rise in total spending in the week up to September 13, compared with the same week in 2019.

23 January 2020

TV and takeaways

The primary application of our data is the low latency read we give on daily sales at hundreds of merchants across Europe. We provide contextual insight as well. Through our anonymised consumer spend panel, we can discover which merchants are more likely to be shopped together. A simple way to understand this is an analogy...

04 August 2019